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Getting rekt on $trove? Use quantitative research to improve ur investing!

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Getting rekt on $trove? Use quantitative research to improve ur investing!

Don’t make the same mistake twice.

2lambroz.eth
Feb 25, 2023
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2Lambroz.eth 🐑 Crypto Nerd 🤓2lambroz.lens🌿 @2lambro
Getting rekt on $trove? Use quantitative research to improve your token fundamental analysis 100x Don’t make the same mistake twice. show u how to valuate base on data, onchain action with @nitrocartel as example 💥comment projects for me to look in!💥 wen 10k followers...
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2:50 AM ∙ Feb 25, 2023
18Likes6Retweets

Getting rekt on $trove?

Use quantitative research to improve your token fundamental analysis 100x

Don’t make the same mistake twice.

Lambro will teach u how to valuate & action base on numbers & onchain action with @nitrocartel as example

wen 10k followers...

💥comment projects for me to look in!💥

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I will teach you quantitatively valulate & monitor your position with

  • 🧠Valuation & Speculation

  • 🧠Investors profiling & Growth metric

  • 🧠Money & Token Inflow

With @nitrocartel & a collaboration dune dashboard with AwuAle

First lets define some terms

📚Market cap, Fully diluted value

🔹Marketing cap

Market value of the circulating supply

Price * circulating supply = Marketcap (Mcap)

🔹Fully diluted value

Price when all the tokens are unlocked

Price * Total supply = Fully Diluted Value (FDV)

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Using $trove as an example, assume you invested in their launch, What should you do?

1️⃣ Post Launch Action, what to look at to decide action

2️⃣How to monitor your position if you want to hold it

1️⃣ Post Launch Action, what to look at to decide action

is there

🔹Utility, Hard Market Demand

Are there hard demands to pump the token short term?

E.g.

  • launchpad tokens to participate in a popular token launch?

  • Low Mcap token with high staking reward?

  • Ponzi?

🔹Valuation & Speculation

Comparables, if you don’t have an idea look at all similar token in the same/similar sector.

Try to get an idea of

  • Mcap

  • FDV

  • Fee

  • Yield

comparables to have a brief idea.

🔹Speculation

  • Is it on a hot Chain like @arbitrum?

  • Launching on hot dex @camelotdex?

  • Is it a china coin or ai.

Never underestimate cryptos in speculation

We all have a bit fucking degeness in us

Using $trove as example, assume you invested in their launch

🔹Utility, Hard Market Demand

❌Governance of $ALP …? Useless?

❌Yield on managing the Treasury..?

Yield on managing a yield bearing token..? Unless

🐑Conclusion

Basically NO “Utility, Hard Market Demand” at launch

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🔹Valuation

Arbitrove’s Mcap is 20m, FDV 67m at launch

Comparables to related protocol, $Trove has High Mcap with no proven TVL yet.

Twitter avatar for @2lambro
2Lambroz.eth 🐑 Crypto Nerd 🤓2lambroz.lens🌿 @2lambro
✅There are quite a few different index protocol but i haven’t seen one for arbitrum yet 🔹Most mcap of index are not relatable because its based on ALP, the actual index but not that governance of the protocol
12:49 AM ∙ Feb 14, 2023
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🔹Speculation

✅Hot arbitrum , camelotdex $GLP hype.

But is all the speculation and hype money went into the $USD13M they raised already?

🐑🏃📉🔻

From this info, normally i will sell the fuck outta this token at asap. Dump that shit all the way out.

2️⃣How to monitor your position if you want to hold it

Assume u want to hold it, what to monitor?

  • Are there more and more investors investing into $trove?

  • Who are these investors?

  • Why are they investing?

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🔹Base Investors

Let's look at the “Base investors” so we can know are the number of investors “growing”

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🔹Investors profile ( Price )

13,931 wallet invested in $trove at 0.067 fdv

We know all of these investors are losing money now, are they going to cut lost?

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🔹Investors profile ( Number )

  • Number of wallets claim by & of trove % of wallet

  • These i will typically use it as reference to

  • “how active are these investors”

  • normally i would track “voting” or other different type of onchain action to monitor these as well.

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🔹Growth

  • Are they new investors coming in?

  • Number of New Wallets by day

  • Is there growth in new wallets and is the growth growing? Or dropping like $trove

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🔹Investor (Base vs New)

Holder of $trove comparing auction wallets vs holder wallet.

Are there net increases in investors compared to people joining the fair launch auction?

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🔹Money Flow

Money talks, are they money going into buy more $trove or selling, as u can see there are more selling everyday. 📉

In summary

❌Utility, Hard Market Demand

❌Valuation

✅Speculation

$trove was able to capture the hype and speculation based with help of #arbitrum & @camelotdex however it has exhausted all the buy power with its fair auction.

❌Investors profile

❌Growth

❌Money Flow

With Data of Auction wallet compare with Holder wallet and token inflow & outflow chart I believe most $trove investors are flippers that wants to buy everything on camelot, unlikely long term believer of the project.

What metrics to monitor in case things change?

❓In/Outflow in $trove amount

❓Number of New Wallets by day

❓Holder of $trove comparing auction wallets vs holder wallet.

What might trigger this?

❓TVL (showing users like to use this product)

❓High yield or maybe new features,

i don’t know man this look rekt af

I hope this provided value to you, like if u read till here

💥comment some projects you want me to look it!💥

Thanks for reading! heres some links

$trove Tracking Dune dashboard

https://dune.com/aleawu/camelot-arbitrove-fair-auction-claim

$trove Launch Dune Dashboard

https://dune.com/aleawu/camelot-arbitrove-fair-auction

💥comment some projects you want me to look it!💥

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