Getting rekt on $trove? Use quantitative research to improve ur investing!
Getting rekt on $trove? Use quantitative research to improve ur investing!
Don’t make the same mistake twice.
Getting rekt on $trove?
Use quantitative research to improve your token fundamental analysis 100x
Don’t make the same mistake twice.
Lambro will teach u how to valuate & action base on numbers & onchain action with @nitrocartel as example
wen 10k followers...
💥comment projects for me to look in!💥
I will teach you quantitatively valulate & monitor your position with
🧠Valuation & Speculation
🧠Investors profiling & Growth metric
🧠Money & Token Inflow
With @nitrocartel & a collaboration dune dashboard with AwuAle
First lets define some terms
📚Market cap, Fully diluted value
🔹Marketing cap
Market value of the circulating supply
Price * circulating supply = Marketcap (Mcap)
🔹Fully diluted value
Price when all the tokens are unlocked
Price * Total supply = Fully Diluted Value (FDV)
Using $trove as an example, assume you invested in their launch, What should you do?
1️⃣ Post Launch Action, what to look at to decide action
2️⃣How to monitor your position if you want to hold it
1️⃣ Post Launch Action, what to look at to decide action
is there
🔹Utility, Hard Market Demand
Are there hard demands to pump the token short term?
E.g.
launchpad tokens to participate in a popular token launch?
Low Mcap token with high staking reward?
Ponzi?
🔹Valuation & Speculation
Comparables, if you don’t have an idea look at all similar token in the same/similar sector.
Try to get an idea of
Mcap
FDV
Fee
Yield
comparables to have a brief idea.
🔹Speculation
Is it on a hot Chain like @arbitrum?
Launching on hot dex @camelotdex?
Is it a china coin or ai.
Never underestimate cryptos in speculation
We all have a bit fucking degeness in us
Using $trove as example, assume you invested in their launch
🔹Utility, Hard Market Demand
❌Governance of $ALP …? Useless?
❌Yield on managing the Treasury..?
Yield on managing a yield bearing token..? Unless
🐑Conclusion
Basically NO “Utility, Hard Market Demand” at launch
🔹Valuation
Arbitrove’s Mcap is 20m, FDV 67m at launch
Comparables to related protocol, $Trove has High Mcap with no proven TVL yet.
🔹Speculation
✅Hot arbitrum , camelotdex $GLP hype.
But is all the speculation and hype money went into the $USD13M they raised already?
🐑🏃📉🔻
From this info, normally i will sell the fuck outta this token at asap. Dump that shit all the way out.
2️⃣How to monitor your position if you want to hold it
Assume u want to hold it, what to monitor?
Are there more and more investors investing into $trove?
Who are these investors?
Why are they investing?
🔹Base Investors
Let's look at the “Base investors” so we can know are the number of investors “growing”
🔹Investors profile ( Price )
13,931 wallet invested in $trove at 0.067 fdv
We know all of these investors are losing money now, are they going to cut lost?
🔹Investors profile ( Number )
Number of wallets claim by & of trove % of wallet
These i will typically use it as reference to
“how active are these investors”
normally i would track “voting” or other different type of onchain action to monitor these as well.
🔹Growth
Are they new investors coming in?
Number of New Wallets by day
Is there growth in new wallets and is the growth growing? Or dropping like $trove
🔹Investor (Base vs New)
Holder of $trove comparing auction wallets vs holder wallet.
Are there net increases in investors compared to people joining the fair launch auction?
🔹Money Flow
Money talks, are they money going into buy more $trove or selling, as u can see there are more selling everyday. 📉
In summary
❌Utility, Hard Market Demand
❌Valuation
✅Speculation
$trove was able to capture the hype and speculation based with help of #arbitrum & @camelotdex however it has exhausted all the buy power with its fair auction.
❌Investors profile
❌Growth
❌Money Flow
With Data of Auction wallet compare with Holder wallet and token inflow & outflow chart I believe most $trove investors are flippers that wants to buy everything on camelot, unlikely long term believer of the project.
What metrics to monitor in case things change?
❓In/Outflow in $trove amount
❓Number of New Wallets by day
❓Holder of $trove comparing auction wallets vs holder wallet.
What might trigger this?
❓TVL (showing users like to use this product)
❓High yield or maybe new features,
i don’t know man this look rekt af
I hope this provided value to you, like if u read till here
💥comment some projects you want me to look it!💥
Thanks for reading! heres some links
$trove Tracking Dune dashboard
https://dune.com/aleawu/camelot-arbitrove-fair-auction-claim
$trove Launch Dune Dashboard
https://dune.com/aleawu/camelot-arbitrove-fair-auction
💥comment some projects you want me to look it!💥
