How to 🔥Create ur own ALPHA 101
🔥Create ur own ALPHA 101
How to develop a investment thesis & take action
🐑Lambro 2023 Q1 personal investment thesis review
U will never be alpha if u just listen and follow.
Like always, this is not a bullshit theory
It is a actionable guide on how I develop my investment thesis
❗Review of my 2023Q1 thesis on
“DeFi will be the first sector to rebound in crypto”
❓Why develop ur own investment thesis?
Don’t just listen to me or these crypto youtubers that look like they are getting their asshole licked
Everyone has an agenda, by having ur own thesis
allows u to hv a clear & well define strategy
convince into being exit liquidity
provides a framework for conducting ur own research & analysis
if u got rekt, at least u review next quarter
My investment thesis ideas are based on
Upcoming core events ( Catalyst )
Raising trend
Ripple effect from these events or trend
How to position my portfolio
Example :
2023 Q1 thesis
Upcoming Events
Shanghai upgrade
FTX rekt (Nov) , raise of swaps & perpupal?
Raising trend
Fees from GMX raised
Ripple effect
Fork season of Perp Dex
New Perp Dex models
Stable yield from LSD + GMX might introduce “yield market”
Talk n theory is cheap.
Here's what I researched after having this theory.
💫New or Fork Perp Dex
As always, there are never lack of forks or smart dev developing new and better hot things of crypto. Hence i think this was a safe bet.
📍My “proof of alpha” lmao
LexerMarkets 🧵9/1/2023 - link
( IDO on Camelot soon ) (invested in seed)
vela_exchange🧵12/1/2023 - link
( exited @ 4x return )
Tribe3Official 🧵19/1/2023 - link
wen token ser
nftperp 🧵 10/1/2023 - link
wen token ser
LionDEXOfficial 🧵 28/3/2023 - link
4/4/2023 IDO
contango_xyz 🧵30/3/2023 - link
(potential new type of perpdex)
Gearboxprotocol 🧵9/2/2023 - link
(undercollateralize lending = potential perpdex model)
🧏🏻Self reflection
My balls got small after losing 80% stables in FTX rekt
I focused more on farming because i thought the market was not in uptrend.
Just maximising my eth or btc yield which turned out not as profitable in speculating perp tokens
"Proof of farming research"
My GLP farming sharing
💫Stable yield from LSD + GMX might introduce “yield market”
Yield Market
Remember UST yield? Stable consistent yield gave Terra ecosystem a bullrun in yield markets protocol.
My theory was, with ETH shanghai, eth being able to unstake + raising perpdex yield it will be a catalyst for these yield protocols. N i was right
I consider of fix yield, yield dex or yield upfront as “yield market”
Everyone is talk about pendle now, but i was pendling before everyone
📍My “proof of alpha”
pendle_fi since 13rd Jan $pendle @ 0.05 now 0.37 LINK
flashstake since 6th feb $flash @ 0.02 now 0.29 LINK
ArchimedesFi
new model enabling “indirect yield trading with undercollateralized leverage”
still keeping an close eye on when they list with new asset
mars_protocol & prism_protocol stayed in cosmo n missed the boat
Things i looked at but didnt write or didn’t bother going deep because i got too busy
APWineFinance
NotionalFinance
🧏🏻Self reflection
Not gonna lie, same mistake.
My balls was small n i focused on using the protocol or farming it instead of speculating on the actual protocol token.
Spoke to a lot of people n realise they don’t understand yield trading, made me had doubts about wide adoption n end up like defi option market.
I heavily underestimated @tn_pendle , @Rightsideonly and @gabavineb ability in promoting n educating mass in yield trading n strategies. REKT af
In general “yield market” is still small but pendle is definitely leading charge expanding this market.
Side note if u still don’t know why yield market can be interesting read these
🧏🏻Reflection on how did I position my portfolio
Balls got small n only wanted to farm
Didn’t believe rebound of market
Did not rotate BTC, ETH into alts enough
I got the direction right but i had a wrong sense of market trend n did not allocate correctly
❌Other thesis i had didnt workout
“Nft will be uncorrelated to general market n bring up NFTfi somehow” (hopeful)
“Iending market will pump because of arbitrum alts” (hopeful)
“BNB forks will take advantage of PerpDEX” (WRONG)
“ATOM growth after tokenomics update” (WRONG)
🫶If u read till here, i like u.
I looking to meet more people that are actively analysing & investing.
Comment below or send me a DM on ur some headline of ur Q2 thesis.
🔥i am looking to setup a private group with likemind investors
2023 Q2 Developing Thesis
⚠️Working in Progress
“ETH L2 rotation”
“Uniswap V3 forks”
“Strategy Vaults on Perp, LSD yields”
“Return of gamefi”
“If gamblefi worked, whats next”
Final words
Investing returns wise is just another typical quarter if not underperforming for me.
My biggest reward was actually building this account, pulling myself from mental mess after ftx
meeting friends like @rektdiomedes @crypto_linn
getting alpha farming alert from @DefiIgnas
joining groups like @FungiAlpha thanks to @monosarin & @LouisCooper_
And of course my favourite guys that constantly read my substack, like, comment and DM me.
Also thank you guys like @tn_pendle @bizyugo @OnChainWizard + all the protocol founders who let me interview n learn about ur crypto journey
I like twitter more than touching grass irl in a healthy way now.
Lets learn, grow, make some internet money together in the rest of 2023
‘...that look like they are getting their asshole licked’ 😂😂😂🤣🤣🤣🤣😂😂🤣
Good read. Im trying to improve my crypto analysis skills. I need to shape my clear investing and trading framework. Your article helps a lot. My focus is on farming, prep, lsd and hk open for crypto trading in June.